The Geopolitics
August 20, 2023
What Can We Expect From the New Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet?
By Sam Rainsy

Cambodia will have a new prime minister on August 22 in the person of Hun Manet, who will replace his father Hun Sen. This change has been orchestrated by Hun Sen himself after his 38-year rule, matching by only two African dictators.

Hun Manet’s assumption of office holds mostly symbolic value, as no significant changes in the political landscape of Cambodia are anticipated. In reality, Hun Sen will continue to pull the strings as the head of the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP), a party of communist origin that has been in power since 1979. Little will truly change as long as the current system established by Hun Sen himself remains intact. Hun Manet will effectively be a captive of this system, which he must preserve under the watchful eye of his father.

Neo-Khmer Rouge Regime

Hun Sen’s regime can be characterized as a neo-Khmer Rouge regime, as it is based on violence and impunity, much like under Pol Pot. Hun Sen was a loyal military leader under Pol Pot from 1975 to 1977. Under Hun Sen, at every level of the state, many new Cambodian leaders after Pol Pot were recruited from former Khmer Rouge cadres, allowing for the maintenance of a police state to this day.

What Hun Sen primarily expects from his son, Hun Manet, is the assurance of continued impunity. It’s widely known that in Phnom Penh, the courts are under political control, and none of the numerous political crimes – resembling acts of state terrorism – which have been committed under Hun Sen have ever been subject to a serious investigation. Cambodia is a land of impunity where the worst murderers roam freely within the corridors of state.

A glimmer of hope for an end to this impunity recently emerged from Paris. On 30 December, 2021, a French investigating judge’s ordinance hinted that Hun Sen could be prosecuted in France once he loses his judicial immunity tied to his role as head of government. This would be in relation to the grenade attack in Phnom Penh on 30 March, 1997. As a French citizen, I had filed a complaint against Hun Sen in the Paris court for an assassination attempt against me that resulted in at least 16 deaths among my supporters on that day.

Hun Sen’s second objective in passing the power from father to son is the ability to continue to control Cambodia both economically and in patrimonial terms.

The Cambodian economy is largely controlled by the Hun Sen family and its allies, forming a political and financial elite which holds immense wealth amidst widespread poverty. Hun Sen perpetuated the Khmer Rouge mentality and culture of considering the nation’s wealth and state property as spoils of war to be used at the victors’ discretion.

In this patrimonial power perspective, Hun Sen publicly declared that he saw himself in the future as “not only the father but also the grandfather of prime ministers.” He must have had the North Korean lineage of Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un in mind.

Clan Succession

The replacement of Hun Sen by his son Hun Manet becomes almost comical when such succession extends not only to the Hun family but also to all families forming the ruling clan. In fact, practically all ministers in the current government led by Hun Sen will be replaced by their respective children in the upcoming government led by Hun Manet. This is a world-first that even North Korea had not dared to imagine.

What makes the creation of the Hun dynasty in Cambodia even more farcical is the “democratic” foundation that Hun Sen wanted to ensure for it. A two-penny farce that would be amusing if a country’s fate was not at stake.

Hun Sen wanted to take no risks over his son’s enthronement. On 23 July, he organized a sham election where his victory was 100% guaranteed. Just a few weeks before the voting day, he had arbitrarily removed the only opposition party that could have challenged him, the Candlelight Party (CP), which I founded 25 years ago.

This highly undemocratic and discriminatory measure provoked an outcry from the international community, which Hun Sen, in his determination to secure his son Hun Manet’s appointment as prime minister, utterly disregarded. But he won’t be able to ignore the backlash for long. Lack of legitimacy is the automatic result of elections without risk.

Lack of Legitimacy

This lack of legitimacy will remain a stain that forever marks the new government under Hun Manet.

Hun Manet himself has a lack of achievement for which Hun Sen cannot compensate. His personality seems rather dull compared to his father’s; he lacks charisma, eloquence and authority. Over the past twenty years spent alongside his father leading the country, particularly the military, he has never done or said anything that would suggest he possesses an independent personality. He has only continually praised his father without any critical thinking.

Despite being 45 years old, he has no known notable achievements or accomplishments, even though he had all the means to accomplish them. Just recently, when the time came to make him prime minister, slightly altering the initial timeline (see “What Lies Behind the Sudden Resignation of Prime Minister Hun Sen?” in The Geopolitics on August 7, 2023), “achievements” were suddenly attributed to him, such as his “heroic behavior” during border incidents with Thailand and Laos 10 or 15 years ago and his “exemplary leadership” in the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic.

These “achievements” largely rely on imagination, as some border incidents with neighboring countries were periodically manufactured by Hun Sen to boost his electoral campaigns, and the successes in fighting Covid-19 in Cambodia can raise skepticism (see “Cambodia is being turned into a political advert for Chinese vaccines” in The Geopolitics on November 16, 2021). Laos, which made little fuss about the pandemic, has fared better than Cambodia with fewer Covid-19 deaths per million inhabitants.

Even the highly-touted admission of Hun Manet to the US Military Academy at West Point conceals a secret inadvertently revealed by Hun Sen. In 2021, the father published a lengthy letter from his son in which the latter clarified that there were two paths to admission at West Point – one for Americans and the other for foreigners – and that he (Hun Manet) was admitted through the second path only thanks to political connections provided by the Phnom Penh government.

Looking ahead, with Hun Manet as prime minister and Hun Sen continuing to set the government’s major political directions, no liberalization of the current regime should be expected. This regime is fundamentally built on repression and violence, which have ensnared those exercising power. In fact, violence confines those who employ it to stay in power more so than those who suffer it. Any liberalization by dictators who rely on violence can only lead to their downfall. The enduring North Korean model is evidence of this.

Original source: https://thegeopolitics.com/what-can-we-expect-from-the-new-cambodian-prime-minister-hun-manet/

Post written by petition at March 17, 2023 12:54 am

សភាអឺរ៉ុប,

• ផ្សាភ្ជាប់នឹងដំណោះស្រាយពីមុនរបស់ខ្លួនស្តីពីកម្ពុជា
• ផ្សាភ្ជាប់នឹងវិធាន 144(5) និង 132(4) នៃវិធាននីតិវិធីរបស់ខ្លួន។

ក. កាលពីថ្ងៃទី៣ ខែមីនា ឆ្នាំ២០២៣ បន្ទាប់ពីការកាត់ក្តីដែលអ្នកជំនាញអង្គការសហប្រជាជាតិចាត់ទុកថា «មិនបានបំពេញតាមស្តង់ដារនៃច្បាប់សិទ្ធិមនុស្សកម្ពុជា ឬអន្តរជាតិ» តុលាការក្រុងភ្នំពេញបានកាត់ទោសលោក កឹម សុខា ឲ្យជាប់ពន្ធនាគារ ២៧ឆ្នាំ ដែលរូបលោកកំពុងស្ថិតក្នុងគុកបណ្តោះអាសន្ន។ អនុញ្ញាតឲ្យបន្តឃុំខ្លួននៅក្នុងផ្ទះ និងព្យួរសិទ្ធិនយោបាយរបស់គាត់ក្នុងការបោះឆ្នោត និងឈរឈ្មោះអោយគេបោះឆ្នោតដោយគ្មានកំណត់។

ខ.ចំណែកឯ កឹម សុខា អតីតប្រធានគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិ ត្រូវបានចាប់ខ្លួនកាលពីឆ្នាំ ២០១៧ ពីបទសមគំនិតផ្ដួលរំលំលោកនាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន និងឃុំខ្លួនបណ្ដោះអាសន្នតាមអំពើចិត្ត រហូតដល់មានការឃុំខ្លួនក្នុងផ្ទះកាលពីថ្ងៃទី១០ ខែកញ្ញា ឆ្នាំ២០១៨។

គ. ចំណែកឯ ចាប់តាំងពីតុលាការកំពូលកម្ពុជាបានរំលាយគណបក្សប្រឆាំងធំជាងគេគឺគណបក្សសង្គ្រោះជាតិ រដ្ឋាភិបាលកម្ពុជាបាននឹងកំពុងបង្រ្កាបសមាជិកគណបក្សប្រឆាំងដោយដាក់ពន្ធនាគារ និងពិន័យជាប្រាក់ និងបង្ខំពួកគេឱ្យនិរទេសខ្លួនទៅក្រៅប្រទេស។

ឃ ខណៈពេលដែលលោកនាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី ហ៊ុន សែន បានកាន់អំណាចស្ទើរតែគ្មានការរំខានរយៈពេល 38 ឆ្នាំ ហើយគណបក្សកាន់អំណាចបានក្តោបក្តាប់អំណាចទាំងស្រុងលើស្ថាប័នរដ្ឋ និងស្ថាប័ននីតិប្បញ្ញត្តិ។

E. ចំណែកឯការបង្រ្កាបរបស់រដ្ឋាភិបាលលើប្រព័ន្ធផ្សព្វផ្សាយឯករាជ្យ អង្គការសង្គមស៊ីវិល និងគណបក្សនយោបាយជំទាស់ ដែលបានចាប់ផ្តើមក្នុងឆ្នាំ ២០១៧ បានបន្ត រួមទាំងតាមរយៈការកាត់ក្តីក្លែងបន្លំជាក្រុម ការធ្វើទុក្ខបុកម្នេញលើសកម្មជនដូចជា កញ្ញាសេង ធារី និងថ្នាក់ដឹកនាំ និងសមាជិកនៃគណបក្សភ្លើងទៀន ការរឹតបន្តឹងសេរីភាព និងការបិទវិទ្យុវីអូឌីVODនៅថ្ងៃទី ១៣ ខែកុម្ភៈ ឆ្នាំ ២០២៣ ដែលជាប្រព័ន្ធផ្សព្វផ្សាយឯករាជ្យចុងក្រោយបង្អស់របស់កម្ពុជា។

1. អំពាវនាវឱ្យមានការដោះលែងលោក កឹម សុខា ជាបន្ទាន់ និងដោយគ្មានលក្ខខណ្ឌ និងមន្ត្រី និងសកម្មជនគណបក្សប្រឆាំងទាំងអស់ដែលត្រូវបានកាត់ទោស ឬឃុំខ្លួន ក្រោមបទចោទប្រកាន់ពាក់ព័ន្ធនយោបាយ។
2. ជំរុញឱ្យអាជ្ញាធរកម្ពុជាធានាឱ្យមានការបោះឆ្នោតដោយសេរី និងយុត្តិធម៌នៅខែកក្កដា ឆ្នាំ២០២៣ ដោយអនុញ្ញាតឱ្យគណបក្សនយោបាយទាំងអស់ ធ្វើយុទ្ធនាការបោះឆ្នោតដោយស្មើភាព សេរី និងតម្លាភាព ក្រោមគណៈកម្មាធិការជាតិរៀបចំការបោះឆ្នោតជាតិដែលប្រកបដោយបរិយាបន្ននិងតម្លាភាពជាងមុន។ អំពាវនាវ​ឱ្យ​ផ្តល់សុពលភាព​គណបក្ស​សង្គ្រោះ​ជាតិ​ឡេីងវិញជាបន្ទាន់ ដេីម្បីចូល​រួម​ក្នុង​ការ​បោះ​ឆ្នោត​ឆ្នាំ​២០២៣។
3. អំពាវនាវឲ្យអាជ្ញាធរបញ្ឈប់រាល់ទម្រង់នៃការយាយី ការបំភិតបំភ័យ និងការចោទប្រកាន់ពីបទឧក្រិដ្ឋដោយហេតុផលនយោបាយមកលើសមាជិកគណបក្សប្រឆាំង សហជីព អ្នកការពារសិទ្ធិមនុស្ស (HRDs) សង្គមស៊ីវិល អ្នកផ្វព្វផ្សាយពត៌មាន និងផ្តល់សុពលភាពឲ្យ VOD ដំណេីរការឡេីងវិញជាបន្ទាន់។

4. អំពាវនាវឱ្យមានសហការរួមគ្នានៃការប្រើប្រាស់យន្តការនយោបាយដែលមាន រួមទាំងការព្យួរឋានៈ ‘អ្វីគ្រប់យ៉ាងលើកលែងតែអាវុធ EBA’ របស់កម្ពុជា ប្រសិនបើការបោះឆ្នោតឆ្នាំ 2023 ខុសពីស្តង់ដារអន្តរជាតិ ឬការរំលោភសិទ្ធិមនុស្សនៅតែបន្ត។
5. ជំរុញឱ្យគណៈកម្មការកំណត់ស្តង់ដារសិទ្ធិមនុស្សសម្រាប់កិច្ចសហប្រតិបត្តិការបន្តជាមួយអាជ្ញាធរកម្ពុជា និងផ្តល់ជំនួយដល់សង្គមស៊ីវិល និងធនធានមនុស្សនៅកម្ពុជា។
6. ជំរុញឱ្យក្រុមប្រឹក្សាអនុម័តទណ្ឌកម្មគោលដៅ ក្រោមរបបទណ្ឌកម្មសិទ្ធិមនុស្សសកលរបស់សហភាពអឺរ៉ុប ដើម្បីអោយបុគ្គលទាំងអស់ដែលទទួលខុសត្រូវចំពោះការរំលោភសិទ្ធិមនុស្សធ្ងន់ធ្ងរ និងការរំលាយ និងការគាបសង្កត់ជាបន្តបន្ទាប់នៃគណបក្សជំទាស់របស់កម្ពុជា ទទួលបាននូវទង្វេីខុសឆ្គងរបស់ខ្លួន។
7. ណែនាំឲ្យប្រធានរបស់សហគមអឺរ៉ុបបញ្ជូនដំណោះស្រាយនេះទៅក្រុមប្រឹក្សា គណៈកម្មការ អនុប្រធាន/ផ្នែកធនធានមនុស្ស អគ្គលេខាធិការអាស៊ាន និងរដ្ឋាភិបាល នាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រី និងរដ្ឋសភាកម្ពុជា។

The European Parliament,

– having regard to its previous resolutions on Cambodia,

– having regard to Rules 144(5) and 132(4) of its Rules of Procedure,

A. whereas on 3 March 2023, following a trial deemed by UN experts to have ‘failed to meet the standard of either Cambodian or international human rights law’, Phnom Penh Municipal Court sentenced Kem Sokha to 27 years in jail, which he is temporarily allowed to serve under house arrest, and indefinitely suspended his political rights to vote and to stand for election;

 B. whereas Kem Sokha the former Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) president was arrested in 2017 over accusations of conspiracy to overthrow Prime Minister Hun Sen and held in arbitrary pre-trial detention until his conditional release into house arrest on 10 September 2018;

C. whereas since the Supreme Court of Cambodia dissolved the largest opposition party, the CNRP, the Cambodian Government has been cracking down on members of the political opposition by jailing and fining them, and forcing them into exile;

D. whereas Prime Minister Hun Sen has been in power almost without interruption for 38 years and the ruling party holds absolute power over the state and legislative bodies;

E. whereas the government crackdown on independent media, civil society organisations and political opposition that began in 2017 has continued, including through sham mass trials, the persecution of activists such as Seng Theary and the leadership and members of the opposition Candlelight Party, the restriction of liberties and the closure on 13 February 2023 of VOD, one of Cambodia’s last independent media outlets;

1. Calls for the immediate and unconditional release of Kem Sokha and all opposition officials and activists convicted or detained on politically motivated charges;

2. Urges the Cambodian authorities to ensure free and fair elections in July 2023, allowing all political parties to carry out equal, free and transparent electoral campaigns under a more inclusive and transparent national election committee; calls for the immediate reinstatement of the CNRP for participation in the 2023 elections;

3. Calls on the authorities to put an end to all forms of harassment, intimidation and politically motivated criminal charges against members of the opposition, trade unionists, human right defenders (HRDs), civil society and media actors and for the immediate reinstatement of VOD;

4. Calls for the coordinated use of available political avenues including the further suspension of Cambodia’s ‘Everything But Arms’ status if the 2023 elections deviate from international standards or violations of human rights continue;

5. Urges the Commission to define human rights benchmarks for its ongoing enhanced engagement with the Cambodian authorities, and to provide assistance to Cambodia’s civil society and HRDs;

6. Urges the Council to adopt targeted sanctions, under the EU Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime, to hold accountable all persons responsible for serious human rights violations and the dissolution and subsequent repression of the Cambodian opposition;

7. Instructs its President to forward this resolution to the Council, the Commission, the VP/HR, the ASEAN Secretary-General and the Government, Prime Minister and National Assembly of Cambodia.

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