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Cambodia’s Political Dilemma and Possible Exit Path
The Chronology
After a single party of government-led party CPP decisively amended the latest laws on political party, Hun Sen has already gained his “upper hand” to fit his “game changer” of win-win strategy to defeat his contender (CNRP) before the elections arrived. Hun Sen has conducted whatsoever he could to gain upper hand: to manipulate the durable national institutions into his personalized institutions, to uphold his patronage networks by monopolizing national wealth, and to tame Cambodian people by using the politics of fear and partial court. The national constitution has been wrongly trimmed to maximize his upper-hand approach at all cost.
Will CNRP be dissolved by the amended laws?
The amended laws are just the back-up plan to advocate party defectors. Primarily, Hun Sen frightened the voters by declaring war if his party lost in the election. But such action will place him at the worst risk. This time, the amended laws with the lawsuit filing at the supreme court to dissolve the CNRP will place him at the worst risk as well if it is put into action. Then, the new dating of Senate election to February 25, 2018, has entertained his intuitive belief in dividing and weakening the CNRP.
Hun Sen is facing with the power of common sense
Hun Sen might be good at the actual battle field, but his latest tactic under the growing well-informed citizens of Cambodia and within the democratic ballots field, he has already succumbed to self-defeat by distancing himself from “people’s common sense”. Those tactics against the people’s common senses are following: working “to cut head to fit hat” in applying the laws of the empire, manipulating the garment workers, dumping the voters by welcoming or advocating defecting representations (law-maker and Sangkat/commune council) to his party, violating the international treaties, and throat-cutting approach towards Cambodia’s growing economy by confronting with the EU and America.
Hun Sen is at high risk
Different from coup-detat in 1997, Hun Sen has run out effective means to attract international community to believe in his “game changer” supremacy. This time, CNRP and their leaders will not continue to commit self-suicidal by accepting any condition to become an alibi, or a power etiquette for the power holder, or bringing national fate into so-called national reconciliation. CNRP and their leaders didn’t shed a fire, thus those who shed fire must be accountable. If Kem Sokha is not released, and the CNRP will be dissolved on November 12, 2017 accordingly, those CNRP law-makers and Sangkat/commune councils are still there because they are elected by the people, and the CNRP and their supporters have more leverage to appeal to the UNs, the signatory countries of the Paris Peace Agreement, and the international community, to step in so that Senate election in February 25, 2018 and the national election in July 29, 2018, are meaningful. More than this, when CNRP is dissolved, there will be no government. No other country in this world dare to recognize such “illegitimate” group of power brokers. As said, the international community will encourage the King to play his role to declare the dissolution of the national assembly paving way to conduct an election for a new “legitimate” government.
The concerted efforts
The supporters of CPP have likely lost sight to uphold the principles while a “game changer” has already achieved his “upper hand” vision. But those supporters are remained intact to challenge a “game changer” to exercise such game easily. The 55 law-makers of CNRP must work in team with achievable plans to outreach to all democratic countries, the UNs, and the international community both domestic and abroad. The 5007 Sangkat/commune councils are active to daily engage with neighbours and those in need at the grassroots levels. The CNRP must uphold “consensus” work procedures of decision-making as supremacy within the party without granting power to any individual in decision-making so that they will face with political of fears and threat. The mandated November 9, 2017, by the America will be effectively taken action. The EU’s economy sanctions announced on Tuesday, October 31, 2017, has been clear enough. Many private talks and measures by the concerned countries have been already put in place. China’s advisers of central communist party’s Politburo already wrote on its media outlet in warning the risky move of Hun Sen if he dare to dissolve the CNRP.
EU MPs threaten Cambodia aid and trade over crackdown
Op-Ed: Reuters
EU MPs threaten Cambodia aid and trade over crackdown
EU Statement on current crisis of political climate in Cambodia
PHNOM PENH (Reuters) – A European Parliament delegation warned on Tuesday that Cambodia could face EU action over aid and vital trade preferences if the human rights situation worsened further.
FILE PHOTO: Cambodia’s opposition leader and President of the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) Kem Sokha talks during an interview with Reuters in Prey Veng province, Cambodia May 28, 2017. REUTERS/Samrang Pring/File Photo
The delegation’s statement was the strongest threat of action from representatives of any Western donors since the arrest of opposition leader Kem Sokha in September and steps by Prime Minister Hun Sen’s government to dissolve his Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP).
The ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Delegation of the European Parliament called for the release of Kem Sokha and an end to the process of dissolving his party.
“The government of Cambodia should be aware that the European Parliament is a co-legislator for budgetary and trade issues,” said the delegation’s chairman, Werner Langen, a member of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats party.
“A serious deterioration of the human rights situation might have implications for development assistance programs and trade preferences,” he said after a two-day visit.
Huy Vannak, undersecretary of state at Cambodia’s Interior Ministry, said the European Parliament should keep trade and politics separate.
“Some members of the European Parliament should distinguish between political agenda and trade for the interests of the people. We need to create many choices rather than make the interests of the people a hostage of a political agenda,” Huy Vannak told Reuters.
“Without economic prosperity, democracy will just be an illusion,” he said.
European Union countries accounted for around 40 percent of Cambodia’s exports in 2016. Its exports, mostly of clothing, get fully duty free access under a scheme to help the world’s poorest countries.
Western diplomats say in private it would be difficult to secure EU agreement for limiting trade preferences because of the harm it could do to some 700,000 low-wage garment workers employed in Cambodian factories.
Police officers stand guard at the Supreme Court of Phnom Penh, Cambodia, October 31, 2017. REUTERS/Samrang Pring
CRACKDOWN
The European Union and its member states also gave Cambodia nearly $170 million in development aid last year, according to Cambodian government figures.
Migrant workers struggling to sign up to vote
Op-Ed: Phnom Penh Post
Migrant workers struggling to sign up to vote
There are few things more important to 29-year-old Yan Muon than voting.
An official processes an identification card at a voter registration office in Phnom Penh in September. Pha Lina
Even though the maths student traded his studies in Cambodia for an electronics factory in Malaysia three years ago in hopes of earning more money, he always planned to return to vote.
Unfortunately, it has been “difficult for me”, Muon said in an interview two weeks ago. “My company always rejects my request [for time off] from one week to another.”
Muon is one of an estimated 1.5 million migrant workers living and working outside Cambodia who must return to the Kingdom to register to vote in next year’s crucial national election. Yet with two weeks left in the registration period, nearly three-quarters of the eligible voters that the National Election Commission was hoping to register have yet to sign up, according to numbers released by the body yesterday.
In interviews with five migrant workers over the past two weeks, none said they were able to return to Cambodia to register.
Many said the biggest challenge is getting time off work. Others said they could not afford the trip. Some cited political apathy.
Chem Phany, a 24-year-old Cambodian working at a factory in Thailand that produces windows and doors, said he wants to vote, but needs at least one week to travel to his hometown in Takeo province.
“My employers will not allow me to get a week’s leave,” he said. “At the same time, I need to spend $130 round trip and to have food to eat. So I can’t afford that.”
So Phany, a garment worker who has been living in Malaysia for 10 years, said her employer also refused to give her time off.
“I wish the government can offer another option, perhaps for us to organise a voting pool at the embassy, so I don’t need to take much time to vote and I can choose a leader for my country,” she said.
Others, like Sim Sarunn, a 26-year-old migrant working at a fruit-processing factory in Japan, were discouraged by the imminent dissolution of the opposition CNRP.
“I would feel regret for [missing] the next election if the opposition party was still there and different parties were competing with each other, but the ruling party now competes alone,” Sarunn said. “So I’m not interested in coming to vote. Even if I do, there’s nothing I can change.”
For local election monitor Comfrel, this is the outcome they feared.
“This is a real difficulty, a real challenge,” said Yoeurng Sotheara, Comfrel’s legal and monitoring officer.
Political turmoil may threaten Cambodia’s hard-won economic achievements
Thank you very much Mr. Weijia for your well-balanced argument between modern political economy and pure win-win one man show strategy of Prime Minister Hun Sen. As said, China has claimed her achievements are through China’s model of political economy, corruption-free state-of-the-arts, and global-oriented approach leadership of President Xi. All these are non-existence in Cambodia PM leadership, which shall pose great risk for China in its global role achievement as articulated by President Xi if China has privately or publicly backed the current moves of Cambodia government.
Op-Ed: Global Times
Political turmoil may threaten Cambodia’s hard-won economic achievements
Arts Exchange Program between VN, Cambodia and Lao on theme of Military Cooperation. (Photo Courtesy monoroom.com dated October 25, 2017 or http://hrkhnews.com/?p=7419)
A close watch needs to be kept on the tense political situation in Cambodia, which is a popular destination for Chinese investors. The Southeast Asian country has experienced strong economic growth in recent years, but its success may be threatened by possible political turmoil.On Friday, the IMF gave a positive appraisal of Cambodia’s economy, saying it is expected to grow by 6.9 percent this year. Having graduated from a low-income to a lower middle-income country, Cambodia seems confident in transforming itself into an upper middle-income economy by 2030 and a high-income country by 2050. Domestic and foreign observers alike have optimistic views of the nation’s economy.
However, rapid economic growth tells only part of the story; the other part is domestic political uncertainty.
According to the Financial Times, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen warned earlier this year that his country could descend into civil war. Over the past few weeks, tension escalated after Sam Rainsy, the former president of Cambodia’s opposition, was arrested and charged with treason for allegedly conspiring with a foreign power to overthrow the Hun Sen administration.
Political stability is a necessity for a nation to prosper and develop, especially a country like Cambodia, whose economy has traditionally been supported by tourism and garment exports.
Letting the situation in Cambodian deteriorate would scare off foreign tourists and investors and deal a heavy blow to the local economy.
Last week, the US renewed a call for the Hun Sen administration to release the country’s opposition leaders.
Cambodia-US relations are strained, and the possibility of US sanctions against garment imports from Cambodia cannot be ruled out. Criticism from Western countries may cast shadows over Cambodia’s economic future.
Appropriate solutions are needed to avoid a further escalation of tension and even conflict. Economic growth in recent years was a hard-won achievement for Cambodia and the growth trend should not be interrupted by the country’s rising political tension. People should become more aware of the importance of political stability to protect the results of economic development.
As an important economic partner of Cambodia, China will pay close attention to the situation in the Southeast Asian country and willingly provide the necessary help.
The author is a reporter with the Global Times. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn