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Cambodia and China: Rewriting (and Repeating) History
Op-Ed: The Diplomat
A lot has changed in 40 years — but not everything.
Chana’s Premier Li Keqiang, center, shakes hands with his counterpart, Nguyen Xuan Phuc, second from left, of Vietnam, Prayuth Chan-o-cha, left, of Thailand, Hun Sen, second from right, of Cambodia, and Thongloun Sisolith, right, of Laos, before an opening of the 2nd Mekong Lancang Cooperation Leaders’ Meeting, in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Wednesday, Jan. 10, 2018. Leaders of nations along Southeast Asia’s Mekong River gather Wednesday in the Cambodian capital amid a push by China to build more dams that are altering the water flow and have raised environmental concerns. (AP Photo/Heng Sinith)
Like Pol Pot before him, Hun Sen has now pinned his political longevity on China, which again looks out at a visage of hostile powers across Asia as it seeks to rise to the status of the regional hegemon, and celebrates having a strong ally in Phnom Penh.
The Soviet threat is gone, but Hun Sen’s cantankerous political attacks on all things American in Cambodia, which has tied him to the Chinese for support, might be viewed in much the same way as Pol Pot’s attacks on Vietnam: it’s me, or a pawn of China’s great power rival du jour.
Though Hun Sen never specified the precise hue of the “color revolution” brewing against him by Cambodia’ popular opposition party as he dismantled the country’s 25-year-old UN-built democracy late last year, his targets both in the opposition and in fragile civil society had a distinct American accent.
The 24-year-old U.S.-owned English-language newspaper-of-record, The Cambodia Daily, was forced to close — but not the Australian-owned Phnom Penh Post. Gone too were radio programs from the U.S.-run Voice of America and Radio Free Asia — along with two of their reporters, who were imprisoned for “espionage” — but not those of Radio France International.
Gone, even, was U.S.-funded National Democratic Institute — even as Germany’s Konrad Adanaeur Institute, which had been actively working with the opposition to develop policies, was left untouched. The message to China would have been clear.
Hun Sen is only the latest in a long line of Cambodian leaders to bank his leadership’s long-term survival and his legacy on the rise of China as the regional power.
Pol Pot, too, was not the first.
King Norodom Sihanouk, the father of Cambodia’s 1953 independence, also moved sharply toward China’s influence late in his rule. He went as far as to sever diplomatic ties with the U.S. in 1965, believing that the future in Asia was with China.
Pol Pot and King Sihanouk were notably both thwarted by competing interests from within their regimes — a pro-U.S. faction represented by the coup leader Lon Nol for Sihanouk in March 1970, and a pro-Vietnamese faction, with Hun Sen among the leaders, in the case of Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge in January 1979.
Hun Sen may well yet prove to have bested both for timing in the China gambit. Yet as a self-proclaimed life-long student of history and geopolitics, he would be forgiven for looking around his party with apprehension.
To Liberate Cambodia
Op-Ed: GlobalResearch
Cambodian Politics
Politically, Cambodians are largely naïve with most believing that they live in a ‘democracy’ despite the absence of its most obvious hallmarks such as civil and political rights, the separation of powers including an independent judiciary, free and fair elections, the right of assembly and freedom of the press (with the English-language newspaper The Cambodia Daily recently closed down along with some radio stations). And this is an accurate assessment of most members of the political leadership of the CNRP as well.
Despite a 30-year record of political manipulation by Hun Sen and the CPP – during which ‘Hun Sen has made it clear that he does not respect the concept of free and fair elections’: see ‘30 Years of Hun Sen: Violence, Repression, and Corruption in Cambodia’ – which has included obvious corruption of elections through vote-rigging but also an outright coup in 1997 and the imprisonment or exile of opposition leaders since then, most Cambodians and their opposition leaders still participate in the charade that they live in a ‘democracy’ which could result in the defeat of Hun Sen and the CPP at a ‘free and fair’ election. Of course, there are exceptions to this naïveté, as a 2014 article written by Mu Sochua, veteran Cambodian politician and former minister of women’s affairs in a Hun Sen government, demonstrates. See ‘Crackdown in Cambodia’.
Moreover, as Sovannarun has noted: most Cambodians ‘still think international pressure is effective in keeping the CPP from disrespecting democratic principles which they have violated up until this day. Right now they wait for US and EU sanctions in the hope that the CPP will step back.’ See, for example, ‘The Birth of a Dictator’. He asks:
‘Even assuming it works, when will Cambodians learn to rely on themselves when the ruling party causes the same troubles again? Are they going to ask for external help like this every time and expect their country to be successfully democratized?’
The problem, Sovannarun argues, is that
‘Cambodians in general do not really understand what democracy is. Their views are very narrow. For them, democracy is just an election. Many news reports refer to people as “voters” but in Khmer, this literally translates as “vote owners” as if people cannot express their rights or power beside voting.’
Fortunately, recent actions by the CPP have led to opposition leaders and some NGOs finally declaring the Hun Sen dictatorship for what it is. See, for example, ‘The Birth of a Dictator’. But for Sovannarun,
‘democratization ended in 1997. The country should be regarded as a dictatorship since then. The party that lost the election in 1993 still controlled the national military, the police and security force, and the public administration, eventually using military force to establish absolute control in 1997. How is Cambodia still a democracy?’
However, recent comprehensive research undertaken by Global Witness goes even further. Their report Hostile Takeover ‘sheds light on a huge network of secret deal-making and corruption that has underpinned Hun Sen’s 30-year dictatorial reign of murder, torture and the imprisonment of his political opponents’. See ‘Hostile Takeover: The corporate empire of Cambodia’s ruling family’ and ‘Probe: Companies Worth $200M Linked to Cambodian PM’s Family’.
So what are the prospects of liberating Cambodia from its dictatorship?
What is happening to the 7 January 2018?
Synopsis:
Amid political stunt of cracking down on Cambodia’s democracy to increase the authoritarian leadership, the new episode of cold war politics in Cambodia has been rewritten to centralize a personal cult of dictatorial behaviour. After exiling Sam Rainsy and jailing Kem Sokha, the dissolution of CNRP was completed; the version of colour revolution and the personal cult narrative are made. But there are something dangerous over there inevitably.
Deadly slope ahead:
Different from the cold war when King Sihanouk allied with China to combat against USA as well as Vietnam allied with Russia to combat against both China and USA, Hun Sen has faced a more deadly bumpy road under current free market political economy. Pol Pot who was spearheaded by China was very disappointing when China didn’t stop Vietnam from invading Cambodia to stop their brutal rule in January 7, 1979. China didn’t care how much Vietnamese conspiracy was strongly built within the Khmer Rouge organization; China has cared only to control them both, Vietnam and Cambodia. Now, with Hun Sen’s administration cracking down a viable political party CNRP that could neutralize brutality in Cambodia, only China has come out to support with promising millions of dollar in aides including releasing a statement to guarantee free and fair election although China has no free and fair election in its country.
The tide of resistance from both domestic forces and international forces will firmly and increasingly position Hun Sen into China’s armpit. But like Pol Pot, China’s interest is first. USA and China cannot retreat themselves from the bonding of free market benefits. If the election will be conducted without the participation of CNRP, the deadly game will be inevitably exploded.
New episode is rewritten:
This year, the narrative of January 7 is purely boosting Hun Sen as the key actor. The clip was made in English subtitling aiming to lure international forces as well as to appeal voters’ support of CPP’s salvation version while the truth of history of this day is truly spitting on the face of all CPP’s circle elites. Resulting from 2013 national election, and the absence of celebration in January 7, 2014, the effort to light it up this year is remained more deeply suspicious among Cambodia’s voters. Khmer proverb says “don’t try to force someone to believe in you if you are not honestly telling the truth to them”, and “too much lie will defeat yourself”. And it is like what the Premier affirmed himself in the clip “don’t hope that brutality and cruelty can help you keep power. This lesson must be learned deeply. The more dictatorial and the more brutal, the sooner the collapse is.”
The Future Scenarios:
Selling old product of January 7, 1979 of the CPP has been hopeless by the observers as those believers in this day are representing around 30% among all eligible voters. With too overwhelming reversal political strategy of Hun Sen such as self-proclaimed hero, whitening out democratic force, politicizing every breadth of Cambodian society, family built-up wealth, pervasive corruptions, and praising this day of foreign invasion, denying UNTAC etc. shall distance Hun Sen and his regime far away from democratic election more and more. These forces are the extreme that can bring both dead and survival. But how could he hide himself by the shield of China alone?
CNRP has come a long way by its evolutionizing through the trend of the people, but it has less experience in adapting itself to “the survival of the fittest”. The latest tactic of pushing its boat along the stream could greatly benefit its investment, but it is also yielding an unpredictable result. To void this, this party must be more pragmatic in its action plan, long term plan, conviction, and workmanship. The existing system of political structure of Cambodia couldn’t permit free will and free mind of the democrats to exercise their potential fully. The pragmatists see these loopholes as the essential factors to adapt and change from within at the maximum. Now, all existing forces are not yet used. The domestic forces are like laid eggs waiting owner to pick and cook them. The international forces are partly used.
Present Cambodia’s Conundrum and Its Foreseeable Future
Preamble:
This upcoming election of Senate in February 25, 2018 and national election in July 29, 2018 are very questionable on its legitimacy as the key voters of largest opposition party CNRP (tantalizing of 5007 councillors) have been redistributed to other parties especially to the government-led party CPP and the dissolution as well as the banning of 118 core members of the CNRP. The excuse of law ratifying to redistributing seats (both law-makers in the parliament and the lower governance apparatus commune-Sangkat councillors) has been outraged by both the providence of such law amending and nationwide errs. More than that, the international community has ever come to shoulder to respond to this systemic crackdown on the state of democracy and human rights brokering since the first election in 1993 sponsored by the UNTAC.
The strength on his political manoeuvring of Prime Minister Hun Sen through the backing of China and the resistance to reinstating back to the original course from both Cambodian nationals and international community are likely not in equilibrium. Thus, pragmatists see that this imbalance will lead to an uncontested solution.
The Hun Sen’s Strength:
Prime Minister Hun Sen has been known for his relentless and successful manoeuvring the tactic of “divide and conquer” on his several political contenders. With the increasing of votes towards the opposition CNRP in both national election 2013 and commune-Sangkat election in 2017, the preparedness and implementation on the dissolution of this largest opposition party has been undertaken. There were no doubts on the amendments by single party (CPP) on several laws such as NGOs laws (LANGO), law of labours unions, law of the press and media (sic), and three times adjustment of the law on political party etc. Mixing his repeated warnings on war if he lost the election to these efforts on law amendments to sideline his opponent is a concerted effort to substantiate the facade of democracy in Cambodia.
With current state of international competitiveness, China publicly announced its support of the dissolution of the CNRP as well as other jailing and threats on the opposition members. The narrative of colour revolution has been made and publicized at large to apply the course of jailing Kem Sokha, president of the CNRP, and the judgement of the Supreme Court to dissolve the CNRP with the conviction of colour revolution to topple a legitimate government.
In hand, Hun Sen has comforted his zone through high ranking positioning of arm-force from his children, to relatives, and to closest loyalists, on key responsibility such as the bodyguard units, the intelligent police, the national police, the military police, and the army. The coffer’s pockets are full of loyal Oknha (entitlement of Lord to cementing patronage beaurocrats of oligarchy) and the key position of treasurers (money’s controllers) of his trust. The governance system of spreading his loyalists to key positions such as the Royal Palace, the Assembly, the Senate, and the Judiciary, the state’s human rights body, the state’s anti-corruption unit, etc., is tangible.
The Convincible Strength:
The dissolution of the CNRP and the redistributing all those seats is comfortably with no distress of reprisal is known as the physical “winning” of the battle while the destruction and violation on the rule of law as well as the disrespectful to the half-nationwide-population voice of the Cambodian people is the moral “defeating” of the war. The domestic outcry of the people levelling at the state of silence is one of the testimonies of their political maturity. They are silently ready to exercise their voice through secrete ballots. The international community representing over 70% of the earth surface has come out with concrete actions and action-plans to respond to Hun Sen’s manoeuvring.
Led by the US and EU, the sanction on individuals of the powerful elites of Hun Sen’s administration is not sufficient. The effort to call for the reconvening of the signatory countries of the Paris Peace Agreements is on pending. It is no doubt that H.E. Pan Sosak, Minister of Commerce, wrote a letter to Prime Minister Hun Sen to tell him the truth on the impact of trade loss sanctioned by the US and EU. It is no doubt that H.E. Tuy Ry, Cambodian commissioner to the United Nations, wrote letter to the Minister of Foreign Affairs on an invitation to join the discussion among permanent member states led by the US and EU at the United Nations this December 19, 2017. It is no doubt that Prime Minister Hun Sen has come out with different scenarios for the reviving of the opposition party by suggesting them to create a new party.
For trade alone, Cambodia can face trade loss up to 75% for its national revenue earned from trade. This huge wealth of exporting major garment and agriculture products to the market in the US and EU have fed the government, the mouth of Oknhas, as well as the hundred thousands garment workers. There are some explanations to seek substitutes to these losses, but in fact, the pain of individual’s visa ban and asset freezing widening to this trade sanctioning etc., is not yet substantial to the loss of political recognition and legitimacy at the present as well as the future.
At least, one year length that UNs postponed the seat of Cambodia during the coupe detat in 1997. When the political normality was turned to its course, the seat was returned. This time, the crackdown on democracy is tantamount that no one can underestimate the severe reprisal if political normality is not turned to its level.
Domestically, Cambodian population at large has emerged the youngest bulk representing 65% with under 35 years of age. This generation is self-determination seekers, rebellious to entrenching injustice, and championing of the political maturity. Nevertheless, Cambodians overseas who have been known for their advocacy and campaign for the Paris Peace Accords in 1991, have ever come together in the largest force to pushing for democracy improvement in Cambodia. On the International Human Rights Day 10 December 2017, they have travelled from different corners of North America in unison to the White House in Washington DC. to voice their concerns. Thousands of signing of Cambodian people signed www.change.org for the reviving of the Paris Peace Agreements. Legally, political, and economical, Cambodia government is an entity of binding with international community standard, this entity is not solely under Cambodia constitution, but no one can manipulate it for the sake of personal wealth and power at all.