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Could CNRP join election in 29 July 2018?
Preamble:
This is a tough question if we look at it from Cambodia government of Prime Minister Hun Sen, but it is an easy question if we look at democratic principles and the current pressures from the international communities. To enabling this feasible question, we need a bit digesting into scientific method of SWOT. Another analysis named PEST has been boon for Opportunity and Threat of SWOT. In case of Cambodia, Politics, Economic, Social, and Technology or the PEST has been evolved into Threat for Hun Sen government through his 33 years in tenure and his recent bogging down of democratic principles by using the court to dissolve CNRP which is the best performer in legitimizing his power.
We are also using indicators such as leadership personality, principles adherence, ethical performance, and structural institution etc. to supplement Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, and Threat on this research’s flashing question of “could CNRP join the election in 29 July 2018?”
History of the Problems:
Courtesy of Phnom Penh Post
Hun Sen is known for his political career of playing both soft and hard tactics to sustain his power and legitimacy. His recent move to amend the laws with his lawmakers solely is aimed to tame civil society, independent media, and to dissolve opposition CNRP. It is confident that this cracking down of democracy is to preempt his power threat of the Senate election in 25 February 2018 and national election in 29 July 2018. His recent action is reverse to his pride of democracy in Cambodia. His wish is likely to use public propaganda to fabricate Cambodian people and the international communities. In fact, the over domestic 4 millions of Cambodian netizens, the nearly 2 millions of Cambodian migrant workers, and the over 1 million of Cambodian diasporic members, all are resistant to this new political propaganda. For the international arena, over half the world is the democratic countries which are keen to condemn Hun Sen’s tactics and are supportive to restore the normality of democracy in Cambodia by allowing CNRP to join the election race smoothly.
China is believed to be only one state that has supported the current action of Prime Minister Hun Sen while China cannot provide political legitimacy according to current Cambodia structure of monarchy democracy, multi-parties, free and fair election, and Cambodia constitution-based governing. China was an acute patron of Pol Pot regime that is notorious in human rights violation of killing field in Cambodia. With current inclination towards China, Hun Sen administration is violating Cambodia constitution of neutrality to vanguard its interests and national sovereign integrity.
Sam Rainsy was once bullied by the Hun Sen government through the legal trial over accusation of damaging border’s wood-poles between Cambodia and Vietnam, but as a result, there were huge boomerang towards Hun Sen’s popularity when Sam Rainsy’s return home from political exile was greeted by millions of Cambodian people. This historic greeting of his back-home is significant to Sam Rainsy’s recent resignation from his post as president of CNRP aiming to avoid legal limbo over it’s dissolution.
Prime Minister Hun Sen has historically used violent words to bully Cambodian people and his opposition. His words are not only about public scolding and irresponsible jokes but threatening towards his subjects directly and indirectly.
STRENGTH:
- Sam Rainsy has become active in lobbying international communities again after Kem Sokha has been jailed by Hun Sen.
- Pressure from well-informed Cambodian netizens or more mature Cambodian voters.
- Legitimacy is the strongest wish of Prime Minister Hun Sen as he has been well aware of high risk to ride on power without balancer and the clear roadmap.
- Economic sanctions are very effective to withhold government’s ability to govern. Economic leverage from USA, EU, Australia, Canada and Japan are vital to the survival of Cambodia government in the present and the future.
- Legal action against the human right violation through the ICJ and other competent courts are vital. UNs can unseat Cambodia if this country failed to comply with legal binding once this country pledged to operate through a democracy leadership.
- Pressure from internal people of interest groups (PIGs) among elites and patrons of the Cambodian People’s Party (CPP).
- Hun Sen’s bad mouths and dictatorship have resulted more pedigree to the opposition.
WEAKNESS:
- China can push Cambodia into single party state by allowing Monarch to exist as a symbol with no real power and the current Constitution will be gradually disapproved.
- Human resource of the CNRP is remained problematic.
- More democratic countries have paid more attention to their own domestic issues.
- There is no one voice and clear time-frame for the democratic activists.
OPPORTUNITY:
- Australia and Japan can take their key role to enabling the genuine reform of the Court, the Assembly, the Administration Platform, and Arm-force, rather than focusing on the complete returning back of CNRP solely.
- The package of negotiation must place national interest as priority, not party or individual.
- Paris Peace Agreement is remained the locus of inspiration of the Cambodian people.
- All democrats regardless CPP or CNRP must stand up together to protect the Cambodia democracy.
THREAT:
- The revolt among the elites and the powerful is inevitable if the frame of democracy is continuing to be deteriorated.
- External player like Vietnam who could undermine the China’s interests in Cambodia is inevitable.
- The Saga of Khmer Rouge is rolling back in Cambodia under the guideline of China.
- The force of democrats have remained hollow internally.
- The time-frame of election for party registration is expired around April 2018.
- If Hun Sen cannot stop CNRP from joining the election, he has strategically been able to monopolize the Senate and contaminate this party to ash.
- In all times, Hun Sen and his team have achieved in taking away all future foundation of the opposition by agreeing things that are trivial and not harmful to the CPP.
What is happening to the 7 January 2018?
Synopsis:
Amid political stunt of cracking down on Cambodia’s democracy to increase the authoritarian leadership, the new episode of cold war politics in Cambodia has been rewritten to centralize a personal cult of dictatorial behaviour. After exiling Sam Rainsy and jailing Kem Sokha, the dissolution of CNRP was completed; the version of colour revolution and the personal cult narrative are made. But there are something dangerous over there inevitably.
Deadly slope ahead:
Different from the cold war when King Sihanouk allied with China to combat against USA as well as Vietnam allied with Russia to combat against both China and USA, Hun Sen has faced a more deadly bumpy road under current free market political economy. Pol Pot who was spearheaded by China was very disappointing when China didn’t stop Vietnam from invading Cambodia to stop their brutal rule in January 7, 1979. China didn’t care how much Vietnamese conspiracy was strongly built within the Khmer Rouge organization; China has cared only to control them both, Vietnam and Cambodia. Now, with Hun Sen’s administration cracking down a viable political party CNRP that could neutralize brutality in Cambodia, only China has come out to support with promising millions of dollar in aides including releasing a statement to guarantee free and fair election although China has no free and fair election in its country.
The tide of resistance from both domestic forces and international forces will firmly and increasingly position Hun Sen into China’s armpit. But like Pol Pot, China’s interest is first. USA and China cannot retreat themselves from the bonding of free market benefits. If the election will be conducted without the participation of CNRP, the deadly game will be inevitably exploded.
New episode is rewritten:
This year, the narrative of January 7 is purely boosting Hun Sen as the key actor. The clip was made in English subtitling aiming to lure international forces as well as to appeal voters’ support of CPP’s salvation version while the truth of history of this day is truly spitting on the face of all CPP’s circle elites. Resulting from 2013 national election, and the absence of celebration in January 7, 2014, the effort to light it up this year is remained more deeply suspicious among Cambodia’s voters. Khmer proverb says “don’t try to force someone to believe in you if you are not honestly telling the truth to them”, and “too much lie will defeat yourself”. And it is like what the Premier affirmed himself in the clip “don’t hope that brutality and cruelty can help you keep power. This lesson must be learned deeply. The more dictatorial and the more brutal, the sooner the collapse is.”
The Future Scenarios:
Selling old product of January 7, 1979 of the CPP has been hopeless by the observers as those believers in this day are representing around 30% among all eligible voters. With too overwhelming reversal political strategy of Hun Sen such as self-proclaimed hero, whitening out democratic force, politicizing every breadth of Cambodian society, family built-up wealth, pervasive corruptions, and praising this day of foreign invasion, denying UNTAC etc. shall distance Hun Sen and his regime far away from democratic election more and more. These forces are the extreme that can bring both dead and survival. But how could he hide himself by the shield of China alone?
CNRP has come a long way by its evolutionizing through the trend of the people, but it has less experience in adapting itself to “the survival of the fittest”. The latest tactic of pushing its boat along the stream could greatly benefit its investment, but it is also yielding an unpredictable result. To void this, this party must be more pragmatic in its action plan, long term plan, conviction, and workmanship. The existing system of political structure of Cambodia couldn’t permit free will and free mind of the democrats to exercise their potential fully. The pragmatists see these loopholes as the essential factors to adapt and change from within at the maximum. Now, all existing forces are not yet used. The domestic forces are like laid eggs waiting owner to pick and cook them. The international forces are partly used.
Present Cambodia’s Conundrum and Its Foreseeable Future
Preamble:
This upcoming election of Senate in February 25, 2018 and national election in July 29, 2018 are very questionable on its legitimacy as the key voters of largest opposition party CNRP (tantalizing of 5007 councillors) have been redistributed to other parties especially to the government-led party CPP and the dissolution as well as the banning of 118 core members of the CNRP. The excuse of law ratifying to redistributing seats (both law-makers in the parliament and the lower governance apparatus commune-Sangkat councillors) has been outraged by both the providence of such law amending and nationwide errs. More than that, the international community has ever come to shoulder to respond to this systemic crackdown on the state of democracy and human rights brokering since the first election in 1993 sponsored by the UNTAC.
The strength on his political manoeuvring of Prime Minister Hun Sen through the backing of China and the resistance to reinstating back to the original course from both Cambodian nationals and international community are likely not in equilibrium. Thus, pragmatists see that this imbalance will lead to an uncontested solution.
The Hun Sen’s Strength:
Prime Minister Hun Sen has been known for his relentless and successful manoeuvring the tactic of “divide and conquer” on his several political contenders. With the increasing of votes towards the opposition CNRP in both national election 2013 and commune-Sangkat election in 2017, the preparedness and implementation on the dissolution of this largest opposition party has been undertaken. There were no doubts on the amendments by single party (CPP) on several laws such as NGOs laws (LANGO), law of labours unions, law of the press and media (sic), and three times adjustment of the law on political party etc. Mixing his repeated warnings on war if he lost the election to these efforts on law amendments to sideline his opponent is a concerted effort to substantiate the facade of democracy in Cambodia.
With current state of international competitiveness, China publicly announced its support of the dissolution of the CNRP as well as other jailing and threats on the opposition members. The narrative of colour revolution has been made and publicized at large to apply the course of jailing Kem Sokha, president of the CNRP, and the judgement of the Supreme Court to dissolve the CNRP with the conviction of colour revolution to topple a legitimate government.
In hand, Hun Sen has comforted his zone through high ranking positioning of arm-force from his children, to relatives, and to closest loyalists, on key responsibility such as the bodyguard units, the intelligent police, the national police, the military police, and the army. The coffer’s pockets are full of loyal Oknha (entitlement of Lord to cementing patronage beaurocrats of oligarchy) and the key position of treasurers (money’s controllers) of his trust. The governance system of spreading his loyalists to key positions such as the Royal Palace, the Assembly, the Senate, and the Judiciary, the state’s human rights body, the state’s anti-corruption unit, etc., is tangible.
The Convincible Strength:
The dissolution of the CNRP and the redistributing all those seats is comfortably with no distress of reprisal is known as the physical “winning” of the battle while the destruction and violation on the rule of law as well as the disrespectful to the half-nationwide-population voice of the Cambodian people is the moral “defeating” of the war. The domestic outcry of the people levelling at the state of silence is one of the testimonies of their political maturity. They are silently ready to exercise their voice through secrete ballots. The international community representing over 70% of the earth surface has come out with concrete actions and action-plans to respond to Hun Sen’s manoeuvring.
Led by the US and EU, the sanction on individuals of the powerful elites of Hun Sen’s administration is not sufficient. The effort to call for the reconvening of the signatory countries of the Paris Peace Agreements is on pending. It is no doubt that H.E. Pan Sosak, Minister of Commerce, wrote a letter to Prime Minister Hun Sen to tell him the truth on the impact of trade loss sanctioned by the US and EU. It is no doubt that H.E. Tuy Ry, Cambodian commissioner to the United Nations, wrote letter to the Minister of Foreign Affairs on an invitation to join the discussion among permanent member states led by the US and EU at the United Nations this December 19, 2017. It is no doubt that Prime Minister Hun Sen has come out with different scenarios for the reviving of the opposition party by suggesting them to create a new party.
For trade alone, Cambodia can face trade loss up to 75% for its national revenue earned from trade. This huge wealth of exporting major garment and agriculture products to the market in the US and EU have fed the government, the mouth of Oknhas, as well as the hundred thousands garment workers. There are some explanations to seek substitutes to these losses, but in fact, the pain of individual’s visa ban and asset freezing widening to this trade sanctioning etc., is not yet substantial to the loss of political recognition and legitimacy at the present as well as the future.
At least, one year length that UNs postponed the seat of Cambodia during the coupe detat in 1997. When the political normality was turned to its course, the seat was returned. This time, the crackdown on democracy is tantamount that no one can underestimate the severe reprisal if political normality is not turned to its level.
Domestically, Cambodian population at large has emerged the youngest bulk representing 65% with under 35 years of age. This generation is self-determination seekers, rebellious to entrenching injustice, and championing of the political maturity. Nevertheless, Cambodians overseas who have been known for their advocacy and campaign for the Paris Peace Accords in 1991, have ever come together in the largest force to pushing for democracy improvement in Cambodia. On the International Human Rights Day 10 December 2017, they have travelled from different corners of North America in unison to the White House in Washington DC. to voice their concerns. Thousands of signing of Cambodian people signed www.change.org for the reviving of the Paris Peace Agreements. Legally, political, and economical, Cambodia government is an entity of binding with international community standard, this entity is not solely under Cambodia constitution, but no one can manipulate it for the sake of personal wealth and power at all.
Letter from Members of Parliament around the world to Prime Minister Hun Sen to reverse his dictatorship machine
His Excellency Samdech Techo Hun Sen
Prime Minister Kingdom of Cambodia
4 December 2017
Dear Prime Minister Hun Sen,
We, the undersigned parliamentarians from around the globe, write to express our deep concern over the arrest and detention of H.E. Mr. Kem Sokha, leader of the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) and a longtime human rights defender and advocate for democracy, three months ago.
Having reviewed the information available regarding his case, and taking note of the evidence submitted thus far by the government regarding his alleged guilt, we have serious concerns regarding the validity of the charges against him. We are also extremely concerned by reports that his arrest and detention were undertaken in violation of his parliamentary immunity and have failed to uphold basic principles of fair trial and the rule of law. These procedural concerns, in addition to the lack of evidence to substantiate charges of treason and the wider climate of repression of the opposition, lead us to believe that his arrest is likely politically motivated.
We are aware that national elections are scheduled for July 2018, and hope to ensure that they are genuine, participatory, and inclusive. But we strongly believe that this cannot happen if there is no legitimate opposition that is able to campaign for election. We are therefore alarmed by the decision of the Supreme Court to dissolve the CNRP, following a motion by your government, in addition to the amendment of electoral laws redistributing the CNRP’s parliamentary seats and local offices to other political parties including the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP). We strongly believe that the dissolution of the CNRP, in addition to the continued detention of Mr. Kem Sokha, makes it impossible for next year’s elections to be considered free and fair.
Twenty-six years ago, the international community came together for the Paris Peace Conference and pledged to support Cambodia’s goal of building a genuine, multi-party democracy in the aftermath of years of war and turmoil. We – and the people we represent – are committed to helping your country achieve these aims. But this can only happen if basic democratic norms and principles are restored.
In line with these concerns, we the undersigned parliamentarians respectfully request that the Cambodian government undertake the following measures with the utmost urgency:
- Immediately and unconditionally release Kem Sokha from prison and drop all charges against him, as well as those against other opposition parliamentarians;
- Immediately reverse the decision to dissolve the CNRP and reinstate all CNRP elected leaders to their positions in Parliament and at the local level;
- Repeal all recent amendments to the Law on Political Parties and to electoral laws; and
- Recommit to working with the international community to ensure that next year’s national elections are genuine, participatory, and inclusive.
Yours sincerely,
Abdullah Sani Abdul Hamid, Member of Parliament, Malaysia
Ahmed Munzoor Shaik Emam, Member of Parliament, South Africa
Alan Lowenthal, Member of the House of Representatives, United States of America
Alessia Mosca, Member of the European Parliament, Italy
Alice Lau Kiong Yieng, Member of Parliament, Malaysia
Ana Gomes, Member of the European Parliament, Portugal
André Gattolin, Senator, France